Konservativci premočno zmagali na britanskih volitvah

Ankete so se motile. Zgodba o tesnem dvoboju za zmago se je razblinila takoj ob prvih vzporednih volitvah. Britanski konservativci so presenetljivo gladko zmagali in osvojili celo absolutno večino (331 od 650 sedežev). Če je zmaga konservativcev še nekako v okviru predvolilnih napovedi, pa absolutna večina ni. Tudi sami tega nismo videli, kar je razvidno iz prejšnje objave na tem blogu. Laburisti so po drugi strani dosegli slabši rezultat od napovedi. Po debaklu je že odstopil vodja laburistov Ed Miliband, ki mu nekateri očitajo občasne preveč leve poglede, kar pa se zdi pretirano.

guavol

Vir: The Guardian 

Rezultati drugih strank niso (veliko) presenečenje. Že v prejšnji objavi smo zapisali, da se levosredinski škotski SNP na Škotskem nasmiha prepričljiva zmaga, kar se je tudi zgodilo. SNP je osvojila 56 od 59 sedežev in povsem porazila tam tradicionalno močne laburiste in liberalne demokrate. Slednji so na volitvah doživeli polom. Ta je bil sicer pričakovan, a se je še poglobil. Dobili so vsega 8 sedežev, kar 47 manj kot na prejšnjih volitvah. Odstop Nicka Clegga, liderja liberalcev, je bila logična posledica.

Tretja kohorta so (manjše) stranke, ki so se v odstotkih odrezale bolje kot na prejšnjih volitvah, a je večinski volilni sistem poskrbel, da so dobile malo sedežev v parlamentu. V mislih imamo predvsem zelene in desničarsko stranko UKIP. Obe sta namreč dobili zgolj po en sedež. V parlament se ni uspelo prebiti niti zdaj že nekdanjemu vodji stranke UKIP Nigelu Farageu, ki pa že namiguje, da bi se lahko ponovno potegoval za vrh stranke.

Veliko Britanijo bodo torej vodili konservativci. Politike? Nadaljevanje in (najverjetneje) stopnjevanje obstoječih. Prihodnost? Michael Roberts, ki se je v napovedih nagibal k zmagi konservativcev, je danes na svojem blogu zapisal (zapis je nastal preden so bili znani končni rezultati):

But, in many ways, this victory for the Conservatives may turn out to be a poisoned chalice. They will have at best a small majority (as the Liberals are unlikely to join a new coalition).  The right-wing of the Conservatives (pressured by UKIP) will be baying for the promised referendum on leaving the EU.  This may take place within a year or so and not wait until 2017.  The City of London and big business is firmly opposed to leaving the EU and all the major parties will call for staying in.  The British public has shown in all polls that it is opposed to leaving.  So my third prediction (after forecasting a no vote on Scottish independence and on the Tories winning in 2015) remains that the British people will vote to stay in the EU.  By the way, there is no majority in Scotland for another independence vote (only 36% in favour according the latest poll).  No wonder, the SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, called the huge SNP victory in Scotland as a vote for ‘anti-austerity’, not independence.

Just as the Conservatives won because of an improving economy, the poison in the cup of victory is the economy over the next few years.  The government is still running a sizeable budget deficit which is not expected to disappear on the most optimistic forecasts of economic growth until 2019.  Public sector debt to GDP is still rising.  Even more worrying, private sector debt is still at record highs, with the property bubble.  Above all, business investment is very weak and corporate profitability is still below the levels of 15 years ago.  UK capitalism is running a large external deficit on trade and depends on an influx of finance capital (‘hot money’) to pay its way.  And a global recession is due probably right in the middle of this term of parliament.  Then the poison will have to be taken.   The Tories won’t win the next election.

Ga držimo za besedo.

Advertisements


Oddajte komentar

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

Komentirate prijavljeni s svojim WordPress.com računom. Odjava / Spremeni )

Twitter picture

Komentirate prijavljeni s svojim Twitter računom. Odjava / Spremeni )

Facebook photo

Komentirate prijavljeni s svojim Facebook računom. Odjava / Spremeni )

Google+ photo

Komentirate prijavljeni s svojim Google+ računom. Odjava / Spremeni )

Connecting to %s